Of course! you know Neal, Joe and Wood. How can you deny your old pals? They're THE METAPHYSICAL THREE:
- ONTOLOGY (STUDY OF WHAT IS REAL "OUT THERE"): "What's real, Neal?"
- EPISTEMOLOGY (STUDY OF WHAT WE KNOW): "Whaddya know, Joe?"
- AXIOLOGY (STUDY OF WHAT IS OF VALUE OR WHAT WE VALUE): "What's good, Wood?"
Using the notion of probability, I can explain ONTOLOGY, EPISTEMOLOGY, AXIOLOGY to you -- that is, the part Neal, Joe, and Wood play in your life.
One of the most famous of debates among great physicists during the 20th century was that between Albert Einstein and the great Danish physicist, Niels Bohr -- who first became known for his "solar system" model of the atom. The debate concerned THE NATURE OF THE PROBABILITY COMPONENT IN QUANTUM THEORY -- the richest physical theory of all times.
Later, Einstein and two colleagues formulated a "thought experiment" to expose this aspect of Quantum Theory as INCOMPLETE. However, over the years, this has led to confirmed experiments that not only show Einstein to be wrong, but that "Nature is much stranger than we thought".
A common error is believing that PROBABILITY MEASURE is DETERMINANT in DECISION-THEORY. NO! EXPECTATION (PROBABILITY TIMES VALUE OF EVENT) IS DETERMINANT!Example. Suppose 1000 lottery tickets are sold. If the lottery is "fair", the PROBABILITY OF WINNING IS 1/1000th. Suppose the PRIZE is $500. Then THE EXPECTATION OF THE LOTTERY IS ($500) x (1/1000) = 50 CENTS. (This is also THE ARIMETIC MEAN -- THE PRIZE SPREAD EQUALLY FOR ALL 1000 TICKETS.) Given two lotteries with the same EXPECTATION, the one whose ticket is cheaper is the better deal.
Thus, the AXIONIC factor makes the difference here.
Failure to understand this apparently made a big difference during The Bastard (Undeclared) War in Vietnam. Robert MacNamara was our Secretary of Defense. MacNamara had been known as "The Whiz Kid of General Motors". But now he reasoned that our cause would win in Vietnam because there were 10 times as many South Vietnamese soldiers as opposing Vietcong. But some one asked: "What if those 10 South Vietnamese soldiers won't fight and that one Vietcong fights like hell?" That is, if the VALUE of the VIETCONG is so much greater than that of the South Vietnamese Soldiery, then the "odds" were against McNamara. (You can read about this in David Halberstam's, The Best and the Brightest.)
I've reminded you of your buddies, Neal, Joe, and Wood, to make you aware of the "metaphysical" aspect of whatever your ALGEBRA represents. The following is an example which you'll FIND ONLY HERE!Biological experts say it's becoming possible to know, from DNA analysis, that a given person has "a genetic predisposition" to a disease -- say, breast cancer.
However, people don't know this and have no recourse.,P> Don't lose touch with your buddies, Neal, Joe, and Wood. They play a role in what goes into that ALGEBRA!